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Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
The S&P 500 SPY ETF rallied 6.83% in the month of July. Below is a table highlighting the performance of key ETFs across all asset classes in July (as well as YTD and over the last week). Interestingly, largecaps here in the US outperformed smallcaps, which usually isn't the case during rallies. Growth and value both performed about the same, while Materials, Industrials, and Energy were the best performing sectors. Globally, Italy (EWI) did the best in July with a gain of 18%. France (EWQ) and the UK (EWU) came in second and third with gains of 14.5%. India (INP), Japan (EWJ), and China (FXI) were up the least during the month. Looking at commodities, oil and natural gas were up while gold and silver were down. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was up 0.56% for the month, while long-term Treasuries (TLT) and TIPS (TIP) were down. And with the dollar down, the British Pound (FXB) was up 4.95%, the Euro (FXE) was up 6.57%, and the Yen (FXY) was up 2.24%.Complete Story »

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Earlier we noted how S&P 500 stocks were doing on their report days. Below we break down 1-day average performance on earnings report days for stocks in each sector. As shown, Consumer Staples stocks have been the most volatile on earnings this season. The average stock in the sector has gained 1.2% on its report day, which is the best of all ten sectors. The average Staples stock that has beaten estimates is up 3.2% on the day, while the average stock that has missed has gotten crushed at -9.5%. Four sectors have averaged declines on their report days -- Telecom, Utilities, Technology, and Energy. Utilities and Telecom stocks that have beaten estimates have averaged declines on their report days. Technology stocks that have beaten have gained an average of 1.5% on the day, but stocks in the sector that have missed have declined 5.6%. Health Care and Materials stocks have done the second and third best this season, averaging +0.7% and +0.6% on their respective report days. Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials are in the middle of the pack.Complete Story »

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
It's hard to believe, but in what is shaping up to be the best month for the S&P 500 in over a year, investment advisors have turned more bearish. In this week's survey of advisor sentiment, Investors Intelligence found that 34.9% of respondents were bearish. While this is down slightly from last week's reading of 35.6%, it is still up from levels we saw at the end of June (33.3%) when the S&P 500 was over 7% lower. Complete Story »

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Yesterday's 100 point advance in the DJIA was the third straight day in a row where the index posted triple digit advances, over which time the index has rallied 4%. As shown in the table below, there have been seven prior occurrences where the index posted three straight triple digit advances. Based on those prior occurrences the Dow has averaged a decline of 0.44% the following day and a decline of 1.17% over the next week. The index posted gains in three out of seven of the day and week periods. Complete Story »

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Over the last week or so, we have heard several references made to last year's bank stress test results as being a catalyst that propelled the overall market, and more specifically Financials, higher. When you look back at the period, however, that comment couldn't really be further from the truth. In the chart below, we highlight the performance of the US Financial sector and the S&P 500 following the release of the US bank stress test results May in May 2009. As shown, from May 8th, through early July, the S&P 500 declined about 5% and the Financials sank over 15%. it wasn't until mid-July 2009 that the market bounced and began its next leg higher. And what was the catalyst in July that got the market going? It was the start of earnings season. In that earnings season, companies delivered strong results reinforcing the improved economic data that had begun to trickle out.Complete Story »

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Yes Motorola! In our regular updates of the most overbought and oversold stocks in the S&P 500, it was surprising to see that seemingly ne'er-do-well Motorola (MOT) tops the list. With the stock currently trading more than three standard deviations above its 50-day moving average, MOT is by far the most overbought stock in the S&P 500, and one of only two Technology sector stocks to make the list of the top twenty. Motorola leading the market higher? It's been a while since anyone has said that.Complete Story »

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
...at least according to the government. In last Friday's release of the CPI, the ten-year change in consumer prices dropped to its lowest level in over forty years. Over the last ten years the CPI has risen 25.97%. The chart below shows the rolling ten-year change in the CPI. Not since June 1969 has the ten-year rate of change been this low.click to enlargeComplete Story »

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Each Friday in our Week in Review newsletter available to Bespoke Premium members, we give a rundown of all of the economic indicators that came out over the last week. Below we provide a table of the economic indicators that have been released over the last two weeks. At the start of the recovery in mid-2009, economic indicators were routinely coming in better than expected. Economists were slow to up estimates, and it allowed indicators to surprise investors to the upside, which provided plenty of positive news for the market. Complete Story »

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Along with individual investors and newsletter writers, a couple of Wall Street's main equity strategists got more bearish in recent weeks as well. Below we highlight the 2010 year-end S&P 500 price targets of strategists surveyed weekly by Bloomberg. Over the last week, UBS and Bank of Montreal both lowered their year-end targets. Prior to lowering their year-end price targets this week, both had previously increased them from where they started the year. Bank of Montreal started 2010 with a year-end target of 1,175, increased it up to 1,225 prior to the correction, and then lowered it back to 1,175 this week. UBS started the year at 1,250, increased it up to 1,350, and then decreased it to 1,150 this week. The average year-end price target for the S&P 500 now stands at 1,250, which is down from its peak reading of 1,268 seen on June 21st, but still up from the 1,225 level where it started the year. A year-end price of 1,250 would be a gain of 12.13% for the full year, and 14.18% from the index's current level.click to enlargeComplete Story »

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Below we highlight the recent performance of key ETFs across all asset classes. After the last week or so of gains, many of the ETFs listed are now even in the black over the last month. Over the last week, pretty much every asset class is up with the exception of Treasuries and the Dollar. In terms of US stocks, smallcaps (IJR, IWM) are outperforming largecaps (SPY, DIA), while Materials (XLB) and Financials (XLF) have been the top two performing sectors. Canada (EWC) and Australia (EWA) have been the best performing international ETFs of those highlighted over the last week. Natural Gas (UNG) is the one commodity ETF that is down over the last week. It is also down 14.39% over the last month, which is by far the biggest decline of any ETF listed.Complete Story »