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Roger Nusbaum submits: Businessweek posted a lengthy article called Amber Waves of Pain which is about the extent to which investors are not getting what they expected from commodity based ETFs. Obviously the US Oil Fund (USO) and US Natural Gas (UNG) have gotten the most attention for "not working" but there are more funds that have been impaired by roll issues meaning that the funds have to replace expiring contracts with further contracts that are more expensive--this is known as contango.The article has all sort of examples of the underlying going up X% while the tracking fund goes down X%. There are many stories like this which is the entire point of the article as a sort of buyer beware.Complete Story »

The Pragmatic Capitalist submits: Goldman remains a long-term commodities bull. Their latest projections follow: Complete Story »

Sumit Roy submits:Energy What was looking to be another solid up week for crude oil, turned into a flat week, largely due to poor performance on Friday. For much of the period, risk assets, including crude oil, took their cues from U.S. corporate earnings announcements, which were generally seen as favorable. Sellers emerged on Friday, however, after a combination of disappointing revenue figures from a few of the big banks, a weak consumer confidence reading, and higher-than-expected core CPI data were released.Complete Story »

MyPlanIQ submits:There is an easy to understand strategy that can lead to high returns with low risk. If you have a portfolio with the correct asset classes represented, over the long term, you will get better results at a lower risk than picking the latest and greatest fund or stock. This is not the bleeding edge of new ideas. This is proven and widely used – being the basis of most money manager’s strategies. MyPlanIQ created SIB portfolios (Simpler Is Better) – market index funds from key asset classes that can be used to measure historical returns to show the impact of asset class selection rather than fund or stock selection. SIB portfolios for different numbers of asset classes are built and used to benchmark returns. From this, conclusions can be drawn as to what is an effective investment strategy for today.Complete Story »

T. Marc Schober submits:The rural economy continues to grow and is at the strongest position in the last two years due to higher farmland prices, rising farm equipment sales, improving retail sales, and continued confidence. The improving conditions are partially offset by limited access to capital and concerns about the new financial reform bill.The Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) declined in June to 52.6 from May’s 54.3, but this is the first time in more than two years that index was above growth neutral 50.0 for two consecutive months. Creighton University economist Ernie Goss said, “After 26 consecutive months of below growth neutral readings, the overall index has now moved above growth neutral for two consecutive months.”Complete Story »

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Below we highlight our trading range charts for ten major commodities. For each chart, the green shading represents between two standard deviations above and below the commodity's 50-day moving average. Moves above or below the green shading are considered overbought or oversold. Oil has bounced off of oversold levels in recent days, but it is still closer to the bottom of its trading range than the top. Natural gas, on the other hand, continues to surge higher, and it is now trading well into overbought territory. Gold remains in a strong uptrend, and it is pretty close to the top of its range. Platinum really sold off sharply when equity markets took their dive, and it is just now starting to recover. Silver is just about in the middle of its range.Complete Story »

Jeff Pietsch submits: The market was able to repair itself somewhat last week with the S&P 500 (SPY) higher by +2.7%. While price action may face significant resistance just overhead and we are mildly short-term overbought, it was very encouraging this week to see select leading ETFs recapture their ten-month moving averages, including the Russell 2000 (IWM), Industrials (XLI), Transports (IYT), Consumer Discretionaries (XLY) and Real Estate (IYR). While it's true that the most oversold indices often bounce the hardest, that is a seemingly bullish slate indeed.(Click Image to Enlarge/ ETF Rewind Glossary)Complete Story »

Matthew Bradbard submits: Based on the late action we should see indices lead us higher next week. After an 8% rally in the previous four sessions, Crude gave back some of its gain today, closing down just over $1. The 9 day MA did hold and as long as that level supports, we think higher ground ahead. That level is $73.25 in July, and on a breach we would move to the sidelines. The distillates should continue to look for guidance from Crude oil. Natural gas gained just over 3% today but closes slightly lower on the week. We have advised clients to buy 20-40 cent dips. On that they would likely be buyers of September futures and September call spreads. It has been a challenge sitting on our hands but we suggest selling a rally in indices only if we get it. On the S&P we see upside resistance at 1100, 1125 and then 1145. The higher price one sells at, obviously, the better. We still like the idea of being short Treasuries, and those not yet in the trade can join us at a better price. Our target in September 30-year bonds remains 120/121.Complete Story »

Matthew Bradbard submits: I may need to start issuing a commentary twice daily as market volatility persists. What appears bullish in the AM is bearish by the PM. The bright spot in energies today was natural gas trading near $5 for the first time in three months. Clients took off all remaining longs at a profit and will look to get in again on a set back of 25-40 cents in the futures. Oil and the distillates were not as kind to our clients. Those trailing stops should have been stopped out from higher levels, but as of this post prices are down 4-5%. We suggest backing off, moving to the sidelines, allowing the dust to settle until a new support and resistance level forms. We would prefer to have clients long but are not convinced there could not be more downside. A bearish NFP report took the wind out of the bulls' sails as indices were hit hard today. No more rally in our eyes and we will likely be getting clients short the ES closer to 1100 than 1155 as previous predicted. We are thankful we held off on shorting Treasuries for clients. Next week we should have some bearish plays; the closer September 30-year bonds are to 126′00 and 10-year notes are to121′20 the more interested we would be. Use this rally in Euro-dollars to scale into short in September and December 2011 contracts.Complete Story »

Mark O'Byrne submits:

Gold Gold is marginally lower and threading water in most currencies today with markets subdued as the London Stock Exchange and Wall Street are closed for national holidays. It range traded from $1,210/oz to $1,214/oz in Asian and early European trading this morning. Gold is currently trading at $1,213/oz and in euro, GBP, CHF, and JPY terms, at €987/oz, £837/oz, CHF 1,043.64/oz, JPY 110,897/oz respectively.Complete Story »