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David White submits:The Baltic Index has fallen dramatically. This is a good barometer of the strength of Chinese commodities buying. Commodity prices are coming off their lows, but they are still weak. Some pundits argue that the Chinese will stop their economic tightening as the Chinese economy has slowed significantly (GDP down to 10.3% growth from 11.9%). Many pundits conclude that commodities prices will go up dramatically. There are problems with both of those points (commodities rising and no tightening). First China may stop or reduce new tightening measures. However, they have already decided on a 5% materials tax, and the Chinese government seldom changes its mind on a course of action. This tax has only been dictated for one province so far and only for oil and gas. It is supposed to be put into place in all provinces, likely within a year. I apologize for not having the exact schedule. Perhaps this will happen by Christmas. The materials tax is supposed to be expanded to include most major materials such as coal, iron ore, etc. When all of this happens, it will significantly affect GDP growth. It will act to depress commodities prices. I note the government says the tax rate may vary on the additional commodities. The government clearly wants to limit oil and gas use more than that of other commodities.Complete Story »

David White submits:The Baltic Index has fallen dramatically. This is a good barometer of the strength of Chinese commodities buying. Commodity prices are coming off their lows, but they are still weak. Some pundits argue that the Chinese will stop their economic tightening as the Chinese economy has slowed significantly (GDP down to 10.3% growth from 11.9%). Many pundits conclude that commodities prices will go up dramatically. There are problems with both of those points (commodities rising and no tightening). First China may stop or reduce new tightening measures. However, they have already decided on a 5% materials tax, and the Chinese government seldom changes its mind on a course of action. This tax has only been dictated for one province so far and only for oil and gas. It is supposed to be put into place in all provinces, likely within a year. I apologize for not having the exact schedule. Perhaps this will happen by Christmas. The materials tax is supposed to be expanded to include most major materials such as coal, iron ore, etc. When all of this happens, it will significantly affect GDP growth. It will act to depress commodities prices. I note the government says the tax rate may vary on the additional commodities. The government clearly wants to limit oil and gas use more than that of other commodities.Complete Story »

Trader Mark submits:With the S&P 500 grasping at 1070, and yet another "90% day" as the student body has run back to the left ("risk off" stampede), let's take a look ahead at the key reports next week; both for the greater market and what we have our eyes on. The next three weeks are the heart of the earnings season, and some of our holdings begin to pop up next week.Names the market will focus on:Complete Story »

optionMONSTER submits: By David RussellCompanies such as miners and chemical producers have been slammed by concerns about the economy, and now traders are divided about whether it's time to bet on a rebound or further bloodletting.Complete Story »

Sumit Roy submits:EnergyDespite a down week in broad financial markets, crude oil advanced 2.2% in the period. Early on Monday, prices got a boost from news that China would allow more flexibility in the Yuan/Dollar exchange rate. Traders bid up risk assets, hoping that the move would be a step in the direction of correcting imbalances in the world economy. Moreover, the potential increased purchasing power of the Chinese currency was seen as a positive for commodity demand. As early as late Monday, however, the optimism over the China news gave way to renewed selling, as global economic concerns came back in focus. As the week progressed, weak economic releases out of the U.S—data on housing was downright ugly—kept the pressure on financial markets. The S&P 500 finished the week down 3.6%; the stock index logged only a single up session in the entire period.The dismal performance of stocks highlights just how impressive crude oil’s own performance was during the week. After the washout in May that sent oil prices as low as $64.24/barrel, the commodity has been on a steady upswing. Over the last three sessions, prices have successfully tested the trendline that defines that very upswing. The $75.50 level that corresponds to the trendline, is also former-resistance-turned-support, hence this ‘double support’ is looking like a tough nut to crack. Caution is warranted, however, for further steep losses in equities would surely spill over into crude oil eventually. On the upside, the psychological $80 level is the first level of resistance. Taking a look at U.S. storage, the EIA reported that in the week ending June 18, crude oil inventories rose 2 million barrels, gasoline inventories fell 0.8 million barrels, distillate inventories rose 0.3 million barrels, and total petroleum inventories rose 2.7 million barrels.U.S. petroleum inventories are now 6.4% above the 5-year average, down from 6.6% last week. U.S. crude oil production was flat week-over-week. Year-to-date, production is up 3.5% year-over-year. Output levels will be closely watched to see whether the situation in the Gulf of Mexico is having any impact.After breaking above the level last week, natural gas fell back below $5/mmbtu this week, as prices sank 2.8%. The primary culprit for the latest move was once again weather, as forecasts are calling for a cool down in parts of the East and South going forward. Additionally, a tropical depression heading over the Yucatan peninsula currently, is expected to make its way up toward the Gulf Coast next week, which will have a dampening effect on cooling demand. Complete Story »

Andrew Horowitz submits: Well, they did it! Thursday, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was ousted and replaced by Julia Gillard in Australia. She began her job as Australia’s first female prime minister by promising to smooth relations with mining, its biggest industry. That should have pushed up some of the mining stocks that have a good amount of business in the country. If you recall, the Rudd administration had proposed a heavy tax on the morning companies that would help to pay for further “stimulus” by sharing the natural resource wealth with the citizens of Australia. Complete Story »

Kapitall submits:The following is a list of companies that are undervalued, when comparing Wednesday's closing price to the average analyst target price (according to Zacks Investment Research). All of these stocks are part of the S&P 500 index. The list was compiled by using Kapitall's screener tool (free registration required). All discount values are based on the closing values of Wednesday, June 17. Other data provided by Finviz.Complete Story »

Gary Dorsch (Global Money Trends) submits: Copper is often referred to as the metal with a PhD in macroeconomics, since it finds its way into so many industrial applications, including automobiles, appliances, airplanes, pipes, wires, and even computer chips, to mention just a few of its uses. It acts as a top forecaster of where the global economy is heading next, especially China, the world’s economic locomotive. As such, copper is a favorite commodity for speculators in the markets, given its cyclical nature, and its volatility. Copper has been on a wild roller coaster ride over the past several years, famous for its boom and bust cycles. Gambling on copper’s next major move is always a high stakes bet. But Jesse Livermore, the world’s most famous trader, observed:Complete Story »

Phil Davis submits: Wheeeee, what a ride! Like any good car race, the lead changes often in the markets. Friday the bears took the lead as the combination of Hungarian debt issues and a disappointing jobs number were like a tire blow-out for the bulls, who were forced to pull in for a pit stop. Fortunately, we had our seat belts on and had assumed the crash position as I had warned Members on THURSDAY Morning at 10:04:Complete Story »

Thomas Smicklas submits:Recently, the New-York based Americas Society, in conjunction with the Council of the Americas, issued an assessment of the climate for U.S. investment in Cuba. "Cuba has persistently ranked as one of the worst business environments in the world", stated Maria Werlau, a consultant specializing in Cuban affairs."The economy is in shambles, suffers from a high external debt and has investment rules that stifle international investments in and about the country."Complete Story »