Free Investing

Clemens Kownatzki submits: This year’s FIFA World Cup 2010 hosted by South Africa has prompted numerous sites to look into possible investment opportunities in South Africa and other countries on the African continent. We are not trying to advise on the merits of investing in South Africa but would rather like to point out a few possible avenues one could consider. As you might have guessed, there are certain ETFs providing some exposure to South Africa and its currency the South African Rand.Complete Story »

Jeff Pierce submits: I really wanted to be in cash at the close of yesterday’s trading, but my signal didn’t tell me to move to cash. I was looking over some charts and realized that it’s really pointless because today, Friday, the market is going to be news driven and emotions are going to rule the day. My signal is an end of day signal, and currently there are some mixed signals so I haven’t added or trimmed any of my positions this week. My shorter term time frame is bullish, while my longer term has remained bearish. Even if the market gaps up today, there’s no point in me watching and letting my emotions tempt me into covering my shorts because my signal won’t come till the end of the day. This is where getting away from the computer can help you to keep your emotions in check. When big macro news is set to be announced it has the same effect on the markets as earnings do on individual stocks. And I never hold a stock through a earnings report. It’s just about the same as gambling and gap up/downs don’t provide you with much flexibility. The major markets are slightly different because they don’t move as much as individual stocks do, but just for the record I don’t like to hold through the jobs numbers or Fed announcements.Complete Story »

Peter Mycroft Psaras submits: Gold has been an amazing investment over the last five years and has made stars out of many Investment Advisors and Brokers who put their clients in the precious metal. Over the last couple of weeks I have had a few requests from my clients to see if it would be better for them to buy a Gold ETF like SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) or to invest in Gold Stocks? Being that I am a Quantitative Equity Analyst by trade, it is very hard for me to analyze the actual commodity itself, as I base all my work on Price to Free Cash Flow and FROIC (Free Cash Flow to Invested Capital) and you can’t get a free cash flow result from a commodity. Thus, I went and analyzed a group of Gold Stocks and found some very disturbing results from a free cash flow point of view, a real horror story. I only analyzed stocks where I could actually get clear P/FCF TTM and FROIC TTM results. TTM means Trailing Twelve Months for those who don’t know. And for those who want to know more about Price to Free Cash flow you can read my 58 year backtest of the DJIA by going here (.pdf).Complete Story »

Davy Bui submits: Scanning the 13F-HR SEC filing of Paulson and Co. suggests that John Paulson employs an active trading strategy. Readers can best view Paulson's moves in spreadsheet format but some broader themes do emerge:

• Similar to some of the other money managers already profiled here (Berkowitz, Klarman), Paulson is bullish in the financial sector, as evidenced by sizable new positions in Wells Fargo (WFC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM) warrants, CIT Group (CIT) and Bank of America Units to complement his already huge holding of the bank's common stock (BAC). Paulson's fund also added substantively to existing stakes in Citigroup (C) and Suntrust Bank (STI).
• While Paulson made some big moves in the financial sector, his single largest new add was Comcast (CMCSA), the cable and now media company.
• Upon examining its holdings, it is evident the fund heavily employs a merger arbitrage strategy. The three large divestitures -- Schering Plough (SGP), Wyeth (WYE) and Liberty Media -- were all related to corporate merger/spin-off activity.
• Perhaps the most intriguing insight to be gleaned from Paulson's holdings is that he appears to be a financial sector bull and a gold bug. The single largest holding revealed in the filing is the gold ETF (GLD) and the fund also has large stakes in several gold miners: AngloGold Ashanti (AU), Gold Fields (GFI) and Kinross Gold (KGC). Apparently, Paulson has taken the stance that the financial sector can thrive despite the massive economic uncertainty that a large gold holding would imply. Or, perhaps one is a hedge on the other.

Martin Whitman is receding more into the background these days and letting other managers helm the funds at Third Avenue. As such, Third Avenue's 13F-HR filing (available here in spreadsheet format) may not be a good reflection of Whitman's thinking. Whitman has always been a big proponent of moving into the financial sector at times of crisis but this time around, he was too early and picked some bad stocks to play. Despite numerous funds and managers, Third Avenue's filing was rather sedate:Complete Story »

Frederic Ruffy submits: SentimentThe major averages opened modestly higher and are holding slim gains in slow trading Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average followed European equity benchmarks higher after Abu Dhabi agreed to lend Dubai $10 billion to avert a default on a key bond set to expire today.Merger and acquisition news helped as well. XTO Energy (XTO) rallied on news Exxon Mobile (XOM) is buying the company for $41 billion and a 25 percent premium Friday's closing price. Sun Micro (JAVA) jumped after Oracle said it was in constructive talks with the EU about its bid for JAVA.Complete Story »

Sprott Asset Management Files Preliminary Prospectus in the US for a $ 575 Million Gold Bullion FundDecember 13, 2009Complete Story »

Frederic Ruffy submits: SentimentStocks are holding modest gains in a day of relatively quiet market action Wednesday. With no economic data to guide the morning action, attention was again on earnings. The major averages slipped at the open after Boeing (BA) and Wells Fargo (WFC) traded lower on earnings news.However, Sandisk (SNDK) and Morgan Stanley (MS) rallied (see Implied Volatility Movers) on better-than-expected results. Meanwhile, a jump in crude oil helped lift some of the energy-related names. Crude oil rose $2.25 to a one-year high of $81.37 a barrel following EIA's latest weekly inventory report.Complete Story »

Stocks discussed on Jim Cramer's Stop Trading! TV segment, Thursday August 6.Gold Fields (GFI), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Gold SPDR (GLD), Gap (GPS), Urban Outfitters (URBN), AIG (AIG), JC Penney (JCP)Complete Story »

The Gold Stock Strategist submits:Newmont Mining (NEM), the world’s second largest producer of gold, kicks off the quarterly earnings announcements for gold mining companies before the market opens on Thursday, July 23. Based on our analysis, we are expecting Newmont to report better than expected results. Gold mining stocks are leveraged plays on the price of gold. Gold accounts for 83 percent and copper is 14 percent of Newmont’s revenue. Spot gold prices averaged $908 per ounce in the first quarter and $922 in the second quarter of 2009. Newmont’s realized gold price was $906 per ounce in the first quarter on sales of 1.27 million ounces of gold. The company expects rising gold production for the rest of the year as they bring the Boddington project on line.Complete Story »