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Tom Lydon submits:

ETFs are cheap, but that doesn’t mean they’re not getting cheaper. One gold fund provider is engaging in a good old-fashioned price war to entice gold traders to its side of the camp, and it appears to be working. On July 1, BlackRock lowered the annual expenses on its gold ETF the iShares Comex Gold Trust ETF (IAU) to 0.25% from 0.40%, writes William Baldwin for Forbes. Market leader in gold ETFs, State Street-managed SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is maintaining its 0.40% expense ratio.Complete Story »

Matthew Bradbard submits: Based on the last two days' action Crude oil appears to be making attempts at higher ground. We will be late to this move because I do not trust it and need further confirmation before getting bullish exposure for clients. A settlement above $79.50 would be the first hurdle. Natural gas will close 8% higher this week at a fresh one month high. We’re suggesting trailing stops on futures just below the 50 day MA and to purchase October and November 50 cent call spreads.The Dow bounced off the 200 day MA at 10275 and could revisit the week’s highs early next week closer to 10550. We would still suggest selling rallies, thinking a weak jobs number next week could be the nail in the coffin for the bulls. Likewise the S&P pared losses today, but as long as prices settle below 1104, the 200 day MA, we think it remains a sell rallies market. For now clients will be fading rallies and purchasing September puts in the ES.Complete Story »

It is very interesting how Taleb tries to predict the reasons of the next crisis:What are potential sources of fragility or danger that you're keeping an eye on?Complete Story »

Gary Tanashian submits: Wednesday morning's email from gold general Jim Sinclair - under siege yet again from the troops in the "community" - prompts today's post. Mr. Sinclair often writes with a war mentality, pitting the gold community against the evil bullion banks - and a good chunk of the rest of the financial world. Don't get me wrong, I think there is plenty of evil out there (it seems that on Mondays, following a meeting or conspiracy of the assembled dignitaries in the G20, my investment accounts take the hit). But apparently a good chunk of the "community" gets its panties all in a bunch every time gold takes the hard hit.Complete Story »

Richard Suttmeier submits: The yield on the 10-Year note ended Monday on my annual pivot at 2.999. Any strength in gold should remain shy of my semiannual pivot at $1218.7. On crude oil a daily close above my monthly pivot at $79.36 targets semiannual risky level at $83.94. This week’s pivot for the euro is 1.2797. The Dow shows a weekly value level at 10,212 with my annual pivot at 10,379 and my semiannual risky level at 10,558. Don’t trust New Home Sales for June.10-Year Note – (3.000) This yield has returned to my annual pivot at 2.999 with my weekly, daily and annual risky levels at 2.875, 2.871 and 2.813. Semiannual and quarterly value levels are 3.479 and 3.486 with quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.495 and 2.249. The US Treasury auctions $39 billion in 2-Year notes today. The low yield for the move was 2.853 set on July 21st, and was a failed test of my 2.999 and 2.813 annual risky levels. (Click to enlarge)Complete Story »

Jeb Handwerger submits:As investors debate the validity of the stress test to gauge the financial health of European banks, the market has definitely signaled clues on the charts that we are nowhere out of the woods yet with the sovereign debt issue. Since the European crisis began at the end of April, the news out of Europe has rattled the markets on high volume selloffs, break of trends and moving averages. It is interesting that now, with the stress test showing positive, investors are hesitant to jump back in. This is indicating that there are still other major concerns and that many of us don’t have faith in the stress test or published government reports. One lesson I’ve learned as a trader is that if you don’t know what the trend is, don’t make a guess. Even a four year old child who looks at a price chart on gold can spot the uptrend. However, in the case of the major market indices -- where you have a declining 50-day moving average below the 200-day moving average, and when you are seeing poor price volume action -- it is best to be cautious. There can be impressive rallies before a bear market begins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is overbought and has crossed the 200-day moving average on light volume. This has come after major bouts of selling from institutions including the infamous “flash crash in May.”Complete Story »

Roger Nusbaum submits: Businessweek posted a lengthy article called Amber Waves of Pain which is about the extent to which investors are not getting what they expected from commodity based ETFs. Obviously the US Oil Fund (USO) and US Natural Gas (UNG) have gotten the most attention for "not working" but there are more funds that have been impaired by roll issues meaning that the funds have to replace expiring contracts with further contracts that are more expensive--this is known as contango.The article has all sort of examples of the underlying going up X% while the tracking fund goes down X%. There are many stories like this which is the entire point of the article as a sort of buyer beware.Complete Story »

Daniel Zurbrügg submits:Our fundamental view on gold hasn’t changed in the last couple of weeks; we continue to be positive and expect further price increases in 2010 and 2011. The last quarter brought yet another new high with gold reaching USD 1,264. The gold price has fallen back to USD 1,200 recently because of negative sentiment caused by the news about the annual report of the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) that revealed that an amount of 346 tons of gold have been swapped for liquidity from the BIS. This is a very significant trade and there is a lot of speculation about possible counterparties for such a trade. The most likely candidates seem to be troubled countries such as Italy, Spain or Portugal, but no additional information was disclosed. Complete Story »

Craig Pirrong submits: This story is creating something of a stir: Gold dealers are up in arms over a provision buried in the thousands of pages of mind numbing verbiage of the health care law. The provision requires firms to submit a 1099 for “purchases of all goods and services by small businesses and self-employed people that exceed $600 during a calendar year.” Gold dealers are peeved because with gold at $1000+ an ounce, virtually every purchase and sale they do will require submission of a 1099. The ostensible purpose of this provision is to permit the IRS to capture billions of dollars of taxes on transactions that currently go unreported. That was necessary to make the health care bill pay for itself. Or, I should say, it was necessary to make pretend that the health care bill pays for itself. Any sentient being knows that it can’t, won’t, and never will, blizzards of 1099s or no.Complete Story »

While we’re convinced gold and gold stocks are destined for much higher levels, buying when prices are low can mean the difference between a double or triple and a ten-bagger... a week in Malibu vs. a week in Milan. There’s no secret formula to buying low, and we aren’t holding the right hand of Midas, but there are periods when prices tend to be lower than others. And if those tendencies play out, it can give us the opportunity to snag a high-quality asset at a bargain price.Complete Story »