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George Fisher submits: This past Monday, Macquarie Group ((MQBKY.PK), $32) [ASX:MQG] announced that business has been weaker than expected and forecast earnings will be down 25% for the first half of fiscal March 2011 and flat for the year. With the Street expecting 11% growth for the first half and 14% for the year, look for downward revisions along with timeliness downgrades as well. Macquarie Group is a well managed, global financial services company headquartered in Australia. Since its founding in 1968, MQBKY has grown into a diversified firm of global size, with offices in the US, Canada, Asia, Europe, and Australia.Complete Story »

Karl Smith submits:

In the interesting exchange between Will Wilkinson and Matt Steinglass on Democracy in America, Matt writes: Through the 1990s and early 2000s,Congress progressively raised targets it set for the GSEs to securitise loans coming from low-income neighborhoods. To the extent that I understand what Mr. Rajan is talking about, I think he may be talking about this. Mr. Jaffee argues that it wasn’t relevant, because the GSEs tended to ignore Congress’s targets, and when they did meet them it was because everyone in the world, including private securitisers, were falling over each other to buy up subprime loans, since everyone had convinced themselves they’d be profitable.Complete Story »

Andy Zaky submits:A few days before the July 2010 rally ended, I presented evidence suggesting the broader market was headed for an impending collapse. Since that time there has been rampant discussion of Hindenburg Omens, market dandruff, deflation, double dip recessions and illiquidity in the popular media. The cat is out of the bag. Is it time to go long or will the market unwind despite the general knowledge of very negative indicators?By now, everyone knows or should know there’s a major 10-month head & shoulders on the S&P 500, Dow and NASDAQ, and that the Hindenburg Omen has been repeatedly confirmed since it first appeared on August 12, 2010. When Maria Bartiromo discusses head & shoulders, and when Jim Cramer talks Hindenburg, that’s when “smart money” knows its time to get out of the short trade. Anytime bearish sentiment becomes popularized, it’s almost certain to be a contrarian indicator. Complete Story »

Edward Harrison submits:No wonder Goldman (GS) has resisted derivatives regulation so fiercely. A huge percentage of the firm’s revenue comes from these activities (hat tip R.W.). The Wall Street Journal is reporting that as much as a third of the firm’s revenue came from derivatives last year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. told the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission that 25% to 35% of its revenue comes from derivatives-based businesses, according to a person familiar with the situation…Complete Story »

Felix Salmon submits: Dell’s $100 million settlement with the SEC is notable for the fact that Michael Dell is personally being fined as well: The SEC’s allegations with respect to Mr. Dell and his settlement are limited to the alleged failure to provide adequate disclosures with respect to the company’s commercial relationship with Intel prior to Fiscal 2008…Complete Story »

Econophile submits: The megabanks have settled back to earth as they all reported very modest Q2 gains as compared to Q1. Goldman Sachs (GS) reported that their profit declined 82% in Q2. Previously commercial banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and BofA (BAC) all reported declines. The headline for the group is Goldman because of their (former) stellar reputation. They had $1.15 billion of settlements related to their SEC fraud allegation settlement of $550 million and a tax settlement with the UK regarding the taxation of bonuses. If you strip out the settlements they would have had EPS of $2.75 vs. $4.93. What was really interesting was that their mainline business, trading operations, was off 39%; apparently they bet wrong on market volatility because they didn't see the euro crisis coming:Complete Story »

Econophile submits: The megabanks have settled back to earth as they all reported very modest Q2 gains as compared to Q1. Goldman Sachs (GS) reported that their profit declined 82% in Q2. Previously commercial banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and BofA (BAC) all reported declines. The headline for the group is Goldman because of their (former) stellar reputation. They had $1.15 billion of settlements related to their SEC fraud allegation settlement of $550 million and a tax settlement with the UK regarding the taxation of bonuses. If you strip out the settlements they would have had EPS of $2.75 vs. $4.93. What was really interesting was that their mainline business, trading operations, was off 39%; apparently they bet wrong on market volatility because they didn't see the euro crisis coming:Complete Story »

Shaun Rein of the China Market Research Group submits: This column originally appeared in Forbes. On my latest appearance on CNBC's "Capital Connection," with Chloe Cho, one of the hosts asked me if Western investors should invest in China right now. I may have surprised many who know I think China is the growth story of the 21st century. I said retail investors should think twice about investing directly in Chinese companies listed in the U.S. and might be better off not investing unless they can stomach real risk.Complete Story »

Michael Steinberg submits:The “got-you” model of investment banking made famous by Goldman Sachs (GS) is reaching obsolescence for the big retail banking franchises according to JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC). With financial reform each customer will now have to carry their own weight. No longer will the financially sloppy, disadvantaged or simply naïve be tricked into paying high fees to subsidize the financially conscientious.Overdraft fees are dead according to Bank of America. They think it is bad business to induce customers into opting into something the customer will regret the first time a cup of Starbucks (SBUX) ends up costing $30. Bank of America, Citigroup (C) and JP Morgan all see revenue losses related to credit/debit card interchange fees (Durbin amendment), but none has revealed their specific mitigation plans.Complete Story »

Kenneth Hackel submits: As if public enterprises didn’t learn their lesson the first time, we are again seeing stepped-up buyback activity. For the S&P 500, during their reporting latest quarter, the firms in aggregate bought back $80.8 billion in common and preferred stock versus $67 billion a year earlier, a greater than 20% increase. As of the latest reporting period, S&P firms in aggregate have reported the following:click to enlarge Complete Story »