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Matthew Bradbard submits: If it's edible, chances are it’s on the move; corn, wheat, coffee, live cattle, etc. Crude closed virtually unchanged on the week but the real story was the $4 trading range as traders are deciding on where from here. There appears to be a tug of war; followers know where we stand we expect a push higher in the coming weeks. Natural gas could get some legs from here; the chart pattern for fresh long entries looks like a Picasso. We suggest November futures with stops below the recent lows and purchasing November call spreads. We’re anticipating a 10-15% move in the coming 45 days. Complete Story »

Matthew Bradbard submits: There’s always a bull market somewhere… it just so happens that it appears to be in commodities. Crude has rallied just over $3/barrel in the last 2 days and is fast approaching the 20 day MA; in October at $75.60. The bulls are back in the driver’s seat; our targets are $77.25 and then $78.60. 54 BCF injection on today’s AGA in natural gas. Our suggestion remains scaling into long in November futures and November call spreads. Our targets are $4.50, $4.75 and then $4.94.Indices broke above the 50 day MA and should test the 200 day MA in the coming sessions; perhaps tomorrow depending on the jobs number. That level in the Dow is 10,350 and in the S&P 1107. December 10-year notes broke the 20 day MA today, 30-year bonds have yet to do so; that level is 131’31. We think a major top is in the making and have advised NOB spreads and bearish options exposure in 10-year notes.Complete Story »

Matthew Bradbard submits: Outside markets likely helped Crude oil trade higher today because the inventory report certainly wasn’t bullish. We maintain that if $71.50 can hold on a closing basis on the October contract, a bottom is in the making. Our upside target into next week is $77.25-$78.50. For the last four sessions natural gas has been back and forth in a 20 cent trading range. Like a coiled spring the longer this lasts the larger breakout we project. As most followers know we’re advising lightly scaling into November longs and to purchase November and December call spreads, expecting that move to be up. Don’t call it a correction; the Dow is higher by 240 points and the S&P by 30 points as of this post. On a further appreciation of 3% bearish plays in the S&P will be back on our radar for clients. Treasuries appear to be putting in a major top; both 30-year bonds and 10-year notes. As for traders start tracking the December contract as opposed to September. It will take a close below the 20 day MA for confirmation; in 30-year bonds 131’22 and 10-year notes at 124’22.Complete Story »

Matthew Bradbard submits: Mergers and Acquisitions are heating up, but that alone does not signal an all clear in my opinion. To see continued upside followthrough in Crude, the first hurdle we need to overcome is $75.85 in the October contract - the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. From current levels we anticipate a 5-8% appreciation in the coming weeks. We expect a move as such in Crude to lift the distillates 12-15 cents lifting prices back over $2/gallon. Talk of increased hurricane activity lifted natural gas prices today. We like the idea of bullish exposure in November but it has been tough to remain vigilant with our bullish stance, being prices have faltered 25% in recent weeks. Buying natural gas later this week and holding for 5 weeks has been a profitable proposition 12 out of the last 15 years. Past performance is not indicative of future results. As long as 1042 in the S&P and 9950 hold on a closing basis we expect a bounce out of here. Are we getting clients in bull mode? - not exactly, just expecting a rally to sell in the coming weeks. Treasuries recouped most of their losses from last week today. Some clients are positioned in put options in December 10-yr notes. This move will either be a re-test of the highs followed by the correction we’re calling for, or on a breakout to new highs we will advise cutting losses.Complete Story »

Matthew Bradbard submits: It’s tough taking investment advice from a man who dons overalls, sports a mohawk and wears gold chains, so maybe you should listen to MB Wealth. Oil has rallied 6.5% in the last three days and the interim bottom we alluded to appears to be in. From here as we’ve posted in recent blogs a move back near $80 should play out in the coming weeks. Those calling for $60 should be cutting their losses about now. Heating oil should find its way to $2.20 and RBOB to $2.05. Natural gas remains the laggard in the sector but clients still hold November call options. We would not advise futures as who knows where the bottom is. For those that have been long for several weeks we’ve started to advise buying back their upper legs on call spreads. Could we be correct again? A lower Q2 GDP was ignored as stocks close near their highs on the day. Those who follow us should see we advised exiting short indices this week and to get short the Treasury complex; short 10-year notes. Complete Story »

Matthew Bradbard submits: Sloppy trading: Like a Sloppy Joe it might be messy but the end result can be tasty. Translation: Be nimble; even with sideways two sided trading there are plenty of trading opportunities. Oil has finished lower 10 out of the last 12 sessions, reaching a six week low today. However today is the last trading day for September futures and when October becomes the front month next week we expect a move north. Clients who have started to scale into longs are down but that is why we suggested scaling in, we’re incapable of picking bottoms. If we do start to get some movement in Crude expect the distillates to follow. Natural gas will close down 4.6% on the week; calling a bottom is dangerous but we feel we’re close here. Clients are buying October and November futures and November 50 and 70 cent call spreads. Complete Story »

Matthew Bradbard submits: Traders who have been around know this all too well: “plan your trade” and “trade your plan.” Crude will finish lower today but well off its lows on a bearish inventory report. On such a bearish report the fact that Crude was able to hold its own means, we think, a rally is in the making. As long as $75 holds on a closing basis we still expect a grind to $80/barrel in the coming weeks. At these levels of risk/reward we suggest bullish exposure in natural gas. Our suggestions include scaling into October futures and purchasing 50-70 cent November call spreads. We expect sideways sloppy action in the indices; a settlement below the 50 day MA at 1085 should mean 1035-1050, a settlement above the 20 day at 1103 should mean a challenge of 1125. Not too exciting but we view this as a tradable range. Comparing the current Treasury market to the Nasdaq tech bubble in my opinion is not a fair comparison. I do think it will end ugly, not because of greed but rather investors realizing that 2-4% over decades is a losing investment. A top could be in the making but I suggest waiting for evidence and being late to the trade.Complete Story »

Matthew Bradbard submits: One simple question: does anyone beside Rick Santelli understand the ramifications of kicking the can down the road?Oil appears to have dropped enough to find some interested buyers trading down just over 7% this week. We’ve advised traders to take at least partial profits on shorts as there should not be much more work on the downside in our opinion. Likewise the distillates have reached our downside objectives so we’ve suggested hedgers to re-institute their upside long hedges. RBOB prices have fallen 11% in the last eight sessions but $1.90 should support. As for heating oil prices have depreciated 9% and could have 2-4% additional slide but no more in our opinion. Natural gas appears to be building a solid base; we’re recommending scaling into long futures and/or purchasing November 50 cent call spreads.Complete Story »

Matthew Bradbard submits: Based on the last two days' action Crude oil appears to be making attempts at higher ground. We will be late to this move because I do not trust it and need further confirmation before getting bullish exposure for clients. A settlement above $79.50 would be the first hurdle. Natural gas will close 8% higher this week at a fresh one month high. We’re suggesting trailing stops on futures just below the 50 day MA and to purchase October and November 50 cent call spreads.The Dow bounced off the 200 day MA at 10275 and could revisit the week’s highs early next week closer to 10550. We would still suggest selling rallies, thinking a weak jobs number next week could be the nail in the coffin for the bulls. Likewise the S&P pared losses today, but as long as prices settle below 1104, the 200 day MA, we think it remains a sell rallies market. For now clients will be fading rallies and purchasing September puts in the ES.Complete Story »

Matthew Bradbard submits: Crude recovered the two previous days' losses, gaining 1.8% today. We expected to see the 50 day MA give way and prices to trade lower, we were wrong. We would move to the sidelines until Crude gives a clearer signal on direction. We expect a trade above $79.50 to signal higher ground, and a trade below the 50 day MA at $76.35 to signal lower ground. Natural gas is higher by 2.44% as of this post, having gained all four sessions this week. For futures traders, as long as the 50 day MA holds, on a closing basis we would remain long. For option traders, we like purchasing 50 cent October and November call spreads. We would think after a 50% Fibonacci retracement and a failure to remain above the 200 day MA indices are headed south again. Whether it be talk of deflation, a disappointing jobs number or lackluster earnings, a move below the 50 day into next week, at 1077 in the S&P confirms lower action. Aggressive traders could short indices with stops above the recent highs. Complete Story »