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Prieur du Plessis submits: While the general consensus view is that the austerity measures in Europe as a result of large budget deficits will force the eurozone into recession next year, economic growth in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is surprising on the upside. Growth in the second quarter accelerated to 2.2% annualized on a quarter-ago basis, while German business confidence in August rose to its highest level since July 2007. The business expectations index was marginally lower but indicates no train smash ahead.Complete Story »

Prieur du Plessis submits: As shown in the chart below, September has traditionally been the strongest month for gold bullion with a rise of 2.6% above the August price. Gold has risen 65% of the time since 1970. November through February are also typically strong months.Click to enlargeComplete Story »

Prieur du Plessis submits: The TED spread (i.e. three-month dollar LIBOR less three-month Treasury Bills) is a measure of perceived credit risk in the economy. This is because T-bills are considered risk-free while LIBOR (i.e. the interest rate banks charge each other) reflects the credit risk of lending to commercial banks. An increase in the TED spread is a sign that lenders believe the risk of default on interbank loans (also known as counterparty risk) is increasing. On the other hand, when the risk of bank defaults is considered to be decreasing, the TED spread narrows.Since the TED spread’s peak of 4.65% on October 10, 2008 the measure eased consistently, but edged up from the March low (10.57 basis points) to mid June (48.64 basis points). Subsequently the default risk has once again declined to the current level of 27.44 basis points. (click to enlarge)Complete Story »

Prieur du Plessis submits: Keith McCullough believes the government should dramatically cut back on spending. However, Barry Ritholtz warns that we could face another recession.Complete Story »

Prieur du Plessis submits: Keith McCullough believes the government should dramatically cut back on spending. However, Barry Ritholtz warns that we could face another recession.Complete Story »

Prieur du Plessis submits: Global business confidence held firm at the end of June, consistent with a global economy that is expanding at close to its potential. Sentiment has remained more or less unchanged since mid-April, suggesting that the European debt crisis has not appreciably impacted global growth prospects, at least not so far,according to the results of the latest Survey of Business Confidence of the World by Moody’s Economy.com.Complete Story »

Prieur du Plessis submits: FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair talks to WSJ economics editor David Wessel about the financial-regulatory legislation pending in Congress, the current health of the banking business and what it’s like to be the sole woman among a band of powerful men.Complete Story »

Prieur du Plessis submits: The video clips below provide a handy summary of the reports expected on the economic, financial and corporate front around the globe during the week ahead.US: Focus on jobs, ISM, currencies Jobs and manufacturing reports will top summer vacation-week data, with few earnings reports on tap. The historic financial-regulation bill should go to President Obama for signing into law.Complete Story »

Prieur du Plessis submits: With the prospect of China surpassing the U.S. in manufacturing next year, Fred Smith, FedEx chairman/CEO, provides some insight on how to keep America in the top position.Complete Story »

Prieur du Plessis submits: On this week’s Consuelo Mack WealthTrack, legendary financial consultant Charles Ellis shares his basic rules to succeed in financial markets. His Winning the loser’s game is an investment classic. Now he’s written a new investment primer with Princeton economist Burton Malkiel, The elements of investing.Ellis founded Greenwich Associates, the international strategy consulting firm in 1972, which has advised many of the leading financial firms in global markets. He has been a teacher of investment management at The Yale School of Management, Harvard Business School and Princeton. He is also the former chairman of the investment committee at Yale that oversaw the university’s huge endowment growth.Complete Story »