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The Energy Report submits:Stifel & Nicholas Oil and Gas Analyst Amir Arif believes cheap natural gas prices shouldn't keep you from making cash in the gas space. Arif says it's all about companies with production growth in low-cost shale basins. "Find the companies that are in these low-cost basins so that you know they have a good margin, regardless of whether gas is forecast at $4, $5, or $6. . .don't make a bet on the commodity, which is what we're seeing. Gas doesn't have positive drivers behind it. You want to make a bet on the volume without diluting the equity," says Arif, who provides some of those names and the reasons behind them in this exclusive interview with The Energy Report.The Energy Report: In a February 2010 research report, you said drilling related to acreage expiration concerns will increase relative to last year and continue to result in more drilling / supply than what the gas price should be signaling into 2011. Does that mean investors should take a serious look at the drilling companies as a way to play the gas market? Complete Story »

Simon Lack submits:Natural gas is a theme we’ve been following for some time. The bullish case for natural gas is well known – it burns cleaner, releasing half as much carbon as coal and 30% less than oil; it’s domestic and therefore is not subject to Middle Eastern geopolitical risk keeping more dollars in the US economy (since the U.S. possesses enough to meet its own needs for decades); and on an energy-equivalent basis it is now much cheaper than crude oil (i.e. an equivalent amount of energy output, measured in BTUs, can be derived using natural gas for around one third the price of crude oil). More recently, the BP oil spill has highlighted that the search for oil is becoming ever more technologically difficult and expensive. It’s likely that a lasting effect of the GOM spill will be a higher required return on capital for those companies engaged in E&P, to cover both increased regulatory oversight and potential liability. Natural gas prices have been depressed for some time as the technological advances in horizontal drilling and fracturing that have unlocked huge supplies of “shale gas” in the NE U.S. and Texas/Oklahoma. Many drilling leases require minimum levels of drilling in order to retain the lease, resulting in an excess supply of natural gas and returns for many drillers that fail to equal to their cost of capital. BernsteinResearch has calculated that even with natural gas at $5-6/mcf few operators of shale wells are earning sufficient returns. For example, Chesapeake (CHK), Devon (DVN) and Petrohawk (HK) all earn around 4% on invested capital while their estimated cost of capital is 8-10%. Complete Story »

Alan Brochstein, CFA submits:
While there are several different factors that are challenging me to rethink my bearish thesis on natural gas prices that I have been developing and sharing over the past 8 months, I believe that the negative trend remains intact. In case you missed it, here are the prior posts in which I have reviewed what key executives in the industry have been telling investors and why I thought their unanimous optimism was most likely bearish.

• Profitless Prosperity Ahead (2/13/10)
• Time to Bail on Shale (11/22/09)
• Natural Gas: Extreme Contango (9/5/09)

In this fourth review, I will again share CEO comments, but, first, I want to share some issues that I have contemplated before sticking with my negative outlook:

• My view is less divergent from the consensus now
• Less drilling to keep leases
• Environmental concerns
• Some key "towel throwing"
• A better understanding of why utilities keep buying forward

The first point is ancecodotal, but when I first started sharing my view, it was clearly contrary to popular opinion that shale plays were going to be value creation drivers for the E&P companies. Now, I have seen a more universal understanding of the impact on supply.Complete Story »

Miriam Metzinger submits: Stocks discussed on the lightning round session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday March 11. Bullish Calls:Ford (F), Ford Preferred (F-PS): "We may have a $12.5m auto buildout in this country… do you know what that means for Ford? It means sales are really exploding…I want to buy Ford, I want to buy FORD Preferred, I want to buy them right here, right now, any time of the week."Complete Story »

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday December 21.Dividend Plays: AT&T (T), General Mills (GIS), Pfizer (PFE), Blackrock Dividend Achievers Trust (BDV)Complete Story »

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
The S&P 500 is trading about 1% above its 50-day moving average, and 60% of the stocks in the index are trading above their 50-days. But the S&P 500 Energy sector is a different story. As shown in the second chart below, just 10% of S&P 500 Energy stocks are currently trading above their 50-days. Energy stocks have come under pressure in recent weeks as oil has fallen from a high in the low $80s to its current price of $72.80/barrel. Both oil and the Energy sector are now trading into oversold territory, but they are still holding their bull market up-trends. Investors that have been waiting for a pullback to get into the sector definitely have an opportunity now.click to enlargeComplete Story »

Trader Mark submits:I emailed the the originator of this list, Eddy Elfenbein of Crossing Wall Street, to see what his parameters for "Top Stocks of the Decade" were and there was but one: The universe was any stock traded on a US exchange that had a price of at least 50 cents on 12/31/99. Complete Story »

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
As noted earlier, Friday marks the two-year anniversary of the S&P 500's closing peak. As of Thursday's close (10/8), only 57 of the 500 stocks currently in the index are up since then. Needless to say, it has been a lousy two years. Below we highlight the 25 best performing stocks in the index over the last two years. As shown, sectors which are the most heavily represented include Technology (7), Energy (6), Consumer Discretionary (5), and Health Care (5). Check back Friday morning for a list of the top performing Mid and Small Cap stocks since 10/9/07.click to enlargeComplete Story »

Market Folly submits:This is the second quarter 2009 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out our series preface on hedge fund 13F filings.Next up is John Griffin's hedge fund Blue Ridge Capital. Griffin is very similar to Stephen Mandel (whom we also just covered) in that they were both some of Julian Robertson's top men at legendary hedge fund Tiger Management. They both went on to form their own funds and as such are labeled 'Tiger Cubs.'Complete Story »