CVE

CVE

Portfolio Tracking: John Paulson vs. Martin Whitman

Davy Bui submits: Scanning the 13F-HR SEC filing of Paulson and Co. suggests that John Paulson employs an active trading strategy. Readers can best view Paulson's moves in spreadsheet format but some broader themes do emerge:

  • Similar to some of the other money managers already profiled here (Berkowitz, Klarman), Paulson is bullish in the financial sector, as evidenced by sizable new positions in Wells Fargo (WFC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM) warrants, CIT Group (CIT) and Bank of America Units to complement his already huge holding of the bank's common stock (BAC). Paulson's fund also added substantively to existing stakes in Citigroup (C) and Suntrust Bank (STI).
  • While Paulson made some big moves in the financial sector, his single largest new add was Comcast (CMCSA), the cable and now media company.
  • Upon examining its holdings, it is evident the fund heavily employs a merger arbitrage strategy. The three large divestitures -- Schering Plough (SGP), Wyeth (WYE) and Liberty Media -- were all related to corporate merger/spin-off activity.
  • Perhaps the most intriguing insight to be gleaned from Paulson's holdings is that he appears to be a financial sector bull and a gold bug. The single largest holding revealed in the filing is the gold ETF (GLD) and the fund also has large stakes in several gold miners: AngloGold Ashanti (AU), Gold Fields (GFI) and Kinross Gold (KGC). Apparently, Paulson has taken the stance that the financial sector can thrive despite the massive economic uncertainty that a large gold holding would imply. Or, perhaps one is a hedge on the other.

Martin Whitman is receding more into the background these days and letting other managers helm the funds at Third Avenue. As such, Third Avenue's 13F-HR filing (available here in spreadsheet format) may not be a good reflection of Whitman's thinking. Whitman has always been a big proponent of moving into the financial sector at times of crisis but this time around, he was too early and picked some bad stocks to play. Despite numerous funds and managers, Third Avenue's filing was rather sedate:Complete Story »

Six Recommended Canadian Energy Stocks

Kurt Wulff (McDep Associates) submits: Six buy recommendations among Canadian producers include five concentrated on oil, Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF.PK), Suncor Energy (SU), Imperial Oil (IMO), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) and Cenovus Energy (CVE) as well as one concentrated on natural gas, Encana (ECA). The five oil producers trade at McDep Ratios ranging from COSWF at 0.70 to CVE at 0.95. ECA has a stock price near Net Present Value (NPV) while some U.S. peers have recently crossed a McDep Ratio of 1.0 and trade above NPV.COSWF offers income anticipated to be 6.3% for the next twelve months including an increase expected to be announced on January 28. McDep Ratios were unusually low during the global financial panic. Unlevered returns have been strong since then and we look for further gains ahead. Recent news of the resignation of Alberta’s energy minister may be a sign of a better provincial royalty (tax) program to further undo the damage of the untimely increase of a few years ago.Complete Story »

EnCana: Energy Market's Next Takeover Target?

Market Blog submits:

By David ParkinsonWhen you see a headline "EnCana (ECA) cited as next possible takeover target after $29 billion XTO acquisition (XTO)," it's bound to raise some eyebrows. After all, we're talking about North America's biggest natural gas producer here, and Canada's biggest energy company up until it spun off its oil assets a couple of weeks ago.Complete Story »

Syndicate content