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Konrad Imielinski submits: Oil prices have increased $3.32 (4.4%) within this time frame: July 1st, 2010 (Thursday) Oil fell $2.68 to $72.95: U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly rose by 13,000 to 472,000 in the week ended June 26th.Complete Story »

Matthew Bradbard submits: Based on the last two days' action Crude oil appears to be making attempts at higher ground. We will be late to this move because I do not trust it and need further confirmation before getting bullish exposure for clients. A settlement above $79.50 would be the first hurdle. Natural gas will close 8% higher this week at a fresh one month high. We’re suggesting trailing stops on futures just below the 50 day MA and to purchase October and November 50 cent call spreads.The Dow bounced off the 200 day MA at 10275 and could revisit the week’s highs early next week closer to 10550. We would still suggest selling rallies, thinking a weak jobs number next week could be the nail in the coffin for the bulls. Likewise the S&P pared losses today, but as long as prices settle below 1104, the 200 day MA, we think it remains a sell rallies market. For now clients will be fading rallies and purchasing September puts in the ES.Complete Story »

Matthew Bradbard submits: Crude recovered the two previous days' losses, gaining 1.8% today. We expected to see the 50 day MA give way and prices to trade lower, we were wrong. We would move to the sidelines until Crude gives a clearer signal on direction. We expect a trade above $79.50 to signal higher ground, and a trade below the 50 day MA at $76.35 to signal lower ground. Natural gas is higher by 2.44% as of this post, having gained all four sessions this week. For futures traders, as long as the 50 day MA holds, on a closing basis we would remain long. For option traders, we like purchasing 50 cent October and November call spreads. We would think after a 50% Fibonacci retracement and a failure to remain above the 200 day MA indices are headed south again. Whether it be talk of deflation, a disappointing jobs number or lackluster earnings, a move below the 50 day into next week, at 1077 in the S&P confirms lower action. Aggressive traders could short indices with stops above the recent highs. Complete Story »

Two words that any oil company dreads to hear are “export duty.” Especially if the word “increases” or “introduced” is floating around there too.So when Kazakhstan introduced an oil export duty to meet shortfalls in the national budget, the mood wasn’t exactly jovial.Complete Story »

Roger Nusbaum submits: Businessweek posted a lengthy article called Amber Waves of Pain which is about the extent to which investors are not getting what they expected from commodity based ETFs. Obviously the US Oil Fund (USO) and US Natural Gas (UNG) have gotten the most attention for "not working" but there are more funds that have been impaired by roll issues meaning that the funds have to replace expiring contracts with further contracts that are more expensive--this is known as contango.The article has all sort of examples of the underlying going up X% while the tracking fund goes down X%. There are many stories like this which is the entire point of the article as a sort of buyer beware.Complete Story »

Energy Burrito submits: Trust me on this one, it's not as farfetched as it first seems. Commodityworld is a big place, and there have been a number of commodities in the news recently, some familiar to energy, and some not. So let's take a closer look at some of these headline grabbers, through their natural comparisons to our pixelated friends from Toy Story.A Crude TailWhat first sent me on the Toy Story tangent is the way that crude oil has been following equities recently. I know the relationship has been somewhat apparent over the last eighteen months or so, but this relationship has tightened even more in recent weeks. For July, the correlation between the S&P 500 and the first-month WTI price has been a remarkably strong +0.93 (correlations can run from + 1.0 to -1.0), which makes me draw the analogy with Slinky the dog. Equities represent the head, and crude is , erm, the rear. Corporate earnings surprises are causing the excitable head of the dog (equities) to lead the charge for risky assets. This leaves crude at the other end of the slinky, being whipsawed around, yet following nonetheless. No tail wagging the dog here, crude is ignoring its own fundamentals for the most part, and being easily led.Complete Story »

Gregor Macdonald submits: The mainstream press is abuzz this week with the “news” that the United States, after 100+ years, has now been surpassed as the world’s No. 1 energy consumer. IEA Paris, following the BP Statistical Review in June, has decided to call this race in favor of China. However, this is really not a story of today. Rather, it’s a story of the past decade. Only the confluence of several powerful forces could have delivered China to its current position. The press should have been paying closer attention. Moreover, the real story here is in China’s growth in coal consumption–the energy source China drew upon to first match, and then surpass, the United States. Let’s take a look first at BP’s data assessment for 2009 energy use, vs. IEA Paris. Our unit of account here is the mtoe–million tons oil equivalent. This is a unit of energy, not volume, and measures BTU. Also, a note: IEA Paris apparently is including Hong Kong in their data so I have added Hong Kong also to mainland China from the BP Statistical Review (which tracks them separately). For 2009, BP has China edging the USA by nearly 19 mtoe, and IEA Paris has China exceeding the USA by a more substantial 82 mtoe. | see below: BP vs IEA Paris: China and USA 2009 Energy Use in MTOE (click to enlarge).Complete Story »

Gregor Macdonald submits: The mainstream press is abuzz this week with the “news” that the United States, after 100+ years, has now been surpassed as the world’s No. 1 energy consumer. IEA Paris, following the BP Statistical Review in June, has decided to call this race in favor of China. However, this is really not a story of today. Rather, it’s a story of the past decade. Only the confluence of several powerful forces could have delivered China to its current position. The press should have been paying closer attention. Moreover, the real story here is in China’s growth in coal consumption–the energy source China drew upon to first match, and then surpass, the United States. Let’s take a look first at BP’s data assessment for 2009 energy use, vs. IEA Paris. Our unit of account here is the mtoe–million tons oil equivalent. This is a unit of energy, not volume, and measures BTU. Also, a note: IEA Paris apparently is including Hong Kong in their data so I have added Hong Kong also to mainland China from the BP Statistical Review (which tracks them separately). For 2009, BP has China edging the USA by nearly 19 mtoe, and IEA Paris has China exceeding the USA by a more substantial 82 mtoe. | see below: BP vs IEA Paris: China and USA 2009 Energy Use in MTOE (click to enlarge).Complete Story »

David White submits:The Baltic Index has fallen dramatically. This is a good barometer of the strength of Chinese commodities buying. Commodity prices are coming off their lows, but they are still weak. Some pundits argue that the Chinese will stop their economic tightening as the Chinese economy has slowed significantly (GDP down to 10.3% growth from 11.9%). Many pundits conclude that commodities prices will go up dramatically. There are problems with both of those points (commodities rising and no tightening). First China may stop or reduce new tightening measures. However, they have already decided on a 5% materials tax, and the Chinese government seldom changes its mind on a course of action. This tax has only been dictated for one province so far and only for oil and gas. It is supposed to be put into place in all provinces, likely within a year. I apologize for not having the exact schedule. Perhaps this will happen by Christmas. The materials tax is supposed to be expanded to include most major materials such as coal, iron ore, etc. When all of this happens, it will significantly affect GDP growth. It will act to depress commodities prices. I note the government says the tax rate may vary on the additional commodities. The government clearly wants to limit oil and gas use more than that of other commodities.Complete Story »

David White submits:The Baltic Index has fallen dramatically. This is a good barometer of the strength of Chinese commodities buying. Commodity prices are coming off their lows, but they are still weak. Some pundits argue that the Chinese will stop their economic tightening as the Chinese economy has slowed significantly (GDP down to 10.3% growth from 11.9%). Many pundits conclude that commodities prices will go up dramatically. There are problems with both of those points (commodities rising and no tightening). First China may stop or reduce new tightening measures. However, they have already decided on a 5% materials tax, and the Chinese government seldom changes its mind on a course of action. This tax has only been dictated for one province so far and only for oil and gas. It is supposed to be put into place in all provinces, likely within a year. I apologize for not having the exact schedule. Perhaps this will happen by Christmas. The materials tax is supposed to be expanded to include most major materials such as coal, iron ore, etc. When all of this happens, it will significantly affect GDP growth. It will act to depress commodities prices. I note the government says the tax rate may vary on the additional commodities. The government clearly wants to limit oil and gas use more than that of other commodities.Complete Story »