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Earnings Preview: Visa

theflyonthewall.com submits: Visa (V) is expected to report Q3 earnings after the market close on Wednesday, July 28 with a conference call scheduled for 5 pm ET. GuidanceThe consensus estimate is 93c for EPS and $1.97B for revenue, according to First Call. The consensus range is 87c-98c for EPS, and $1.88B-$2.04B for revenue. Both American Express (AXP) and Capitol One (COF) reported better than expected EPS, possibly indicating that Visa could follow suit. A number of analysts have expressed optimism about Visa's Q3 results in recent days. Buckingham wrote that it expects Visa to report solid results as the company benefits from increased foreign travel and spending. On a negative note, the firm expects concerns about the Fed's regulation of debit card interchange fees will likely continue into next year. However, the firm expects Visa's 20% EPS growth to eventually overcome those concerns allowing its valuation to expand. Complete Story »

The Fourth of July, And Investing in America

Luckless Hero submits: Happy Fourth of July weekend! The Fourth of July is a time where we reflect on one of the most important moments in history, a moment and a revolution that created the longest running democracy in the history of the world. Now, let’s put all negative feelings aside, all politics should be put to rest for a day, all spears and spite lowered because this weekend is a weekend of history, family, fireworks and BBQ. I figured that I would put together an A-Z list of companies to invest in that will invest in America.

  1. American Tower (AMT) – American Tower – Massachusetts based company builds cell phone towers. Look for movement in the company with the expansion of 4G networks to urbanized and suburban areas and the expansion of 3G coverage to more rural areas.
  2. Berkshire Hathaway – (BRK.A) – If there is anyone who believes in America and buys American it is Warren Buffet. He believes in rail cars, brick and mortar companies, insurance and good advice.
  3. Caterpillar (CAT) – Somber moment, the infrastructure of America is in disrepair. Highways, bridges, dams and toll roads are all in need of a major overhaul and CAT will be part of that government and private spending boon.
  4. Disney (DIS) – It has become a small world after all. Theme park turned entertainment and advertising super star. Disney has great brand recognition and brand control. The company has been able to effectively lobby to have copyright law changed numerous times. It is a force to be reckoned with.
  5. EMC (EMC) – Is the parent company of VMWare. The company will make computers more efficient, protect data and maintain data integrity. EMC is a major IT solution provider and as computers expand even further in use and become more prevalent in all aspects of life the company will be well positioned to profit.
  6. FORD - (F) – Ford is a company that did not take any bailout money from the government. It is a company that seems to be listening to consumers and adapting its products with a forward looking view. The recent problems at Toyota have opened a window of opportunity even wider for this American auto giant to forge a return to prevalence and continued automotive relevance.
  7. Google – (GOOG) – Infrastructure, Infrastructure, Infrastructure. Not roads to drive on but certainly information high ways and a commuter cloud! Talk about the best and the brightest, move over NASA. Google continues to innovate and enter new product markets. They are a currently unparalleled search engine that has managed to stay disentangled from more moneyed interests. Finally, Google continues to invest in new VC and PC ideas fostering more American growth and innovation.
  8. Hewlett Packard – (HPQ) – With Dell’s recent woes and looming legal problems, HP, like Ford, has a great opportunity to completely dominate and revolutionize the computing market. HP has moved from a printer company to a PC company to a flat screen TV maker to a maker of high quality digital devices across many spectrums. As well HP, is like our next candidate, Intel, and the engineers at HP have been pushing the limit on computer chip design.
  9. Intel – (INTC) – Intel has and will be a driving tech force. The corporate culture is the value.
  10. Johnson and Johnson – (JNJ) – that’s right folks the people that make your baby shampoo, they love America. But really this behemoth of a company is a medical device maker. With the passage of the new health care reform bill JNJ stands to profit and prosper as more people will have access to surgeries and procedures that will be able to take advantage of the products that JNJ puts out for medical device purposes.
  11. Coca-Cola (KO) -- So I cheated a little on this one by listing Coca-Cola by their ticker KO. But this is a company that has been getting beaten up a little bit in the market lately. Make no mistake Coca-Cola is still king. There is still a strong grown potential in the global scheme.
  12. Lowes (LOW) – Much like their Home Depot counter part, Lowes is in a tricky position of being in a place where the recession and housing slow down will defiantly affect the company short term. But as the infrastructure projects pick up to rebuild and revive America I think that Lowes will be well positioned to be in a highly profitable area of the market.
  13. McDonald’s – (MCD) - McDonald’s… need I say more? They pay dividends, they grow domestically and globally, they have almost unparalleled brand recognition. McDonald’s has started serving good coffee at a low price and is rumored to be testing out low fat breakfast options with even an oatmeal offering, showing that they are still looking to innovate their product offering. If the price is right I can see customers leaving Starbucks and other higher end stores for the lower cost McDonalds option.
  14. Northrop Grumman Corporation – (NOC) – If you are a news junkie like me then you saw that Israel is still blockading Palestine. Iran has threatened to try to bust the blockade by force and is sending ships to aid in the effort. The US is sending cruisers up the Suez now for the potential show down. The Koreas have tensions running high. The United States has armed forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Until the world returns to a more sane mind frame I am a strong believer that weapon makers are a good buy now.
  15. Oracle – (ORCL) – Essentially the database king, ORCL stands alone atop a computing mountain. With software that runs most corporate enterprises and even mom and pop shops Oracle is a stock to own. More and more Oracle is trying to offer the complete business solution and be the hardware and software provider. The growth potential for this company is every expansive because it has a corporate culture to be acquisitive and pick up good ideas and bring them into the Oracle fold.
  16. Pfizer – (PFE) – With the pick up of Wyeth, Pfizer has breathed new life into its company. Wyeth had a good pipeline and also has some strong brands with good market recognition. PFE is still hunting out its next block buster drug. But with Merck (MRK) flagging recently PFE looks like the stronger of the pharma giants.
  17. Quest Diagnostics Incorporated – (DGX) – Just like (JNJ), I believe that Quest stands to profit from the new health care overhaul. As medicine shits to a preventative focus Quest will be well positioned as more of the tests are done for people as medicine attempts to catch and treat illness before it becomes catastrophic.
  18. Raytheon – (RTN) – Push to far and you see a strong backlash. I support and believe in the current administration, but when cuts on spending or defense are pushed to far I believe that there is an inevitable backlash. I also like this pick now because as spending has been cut the stock may be able to be picked up on the cheap. I see tensions in the geopolitical sphere also creating additional demand for RTN’s products.
  19. Starbucks – (SBUX) – Good corporate culture, great corporate governance, creates a fantastic product. Starbucks is still the number one premium beverage provider. The company pays well, has a good health insurance plan, offers tuition reimbursement for barristas, these programs create good will and put investors mind at ease. If other companies acted like Starbucks acted then I do not even think many of the government programs that we have would be necessary. Want a smaller government? Get better corporations.
  20. ATT - (T) – has a killer iPhone, has moved away from unlimited data plans and has better customer service. Verizon (VZ) is terrible for customer service. VZ representatives are horrible to work with in the stores, brutal. T – gets my vote for a long term investing prospect as they have had the iPhone for longer and have had to deal with a much higher volume of data being transmitted over their system.
  21. United Technologies Corporation - (UTX) – This is a conglomerate company that has some great bread and butter brands that will continue to churn out profits along with a little more high flying division that deals with aerospace engineering and getting humans from point A Earth to point B outer space. While NASA is on the ropes the destiny of human space flight seems to be solidly set as a long term goal and vision. The private sector will have to take the reigns on this project and make the magic and the money happen as we reach for the stars.
  22. Visa – (V) – It’s everywhere you want to be! Visa and the other big card companies are potentially in for a hit as the new FinReg law looms large. I would wait till the dust settles on the new rule and see if the market looks attractive. As the recession begins to end consumer and corporate spending will increase and V will be a good long term selection.
  23. WTR – Aqua America - (WTR) – Spending on America will require that the utilities update their lines. WTR is a specialist at finding distressed water utility companies and making them into turn around stars. As the infrastructure of the USA ages I believe that this company will be a strong selection in the consolidated water delivery market.
  24. Exxon Mobil - (XOM) – Big oil just got bigger. With the pick up of XTO XOM is well positioned for the near future. I worry about the lack of spending on alternative forms of energy that I am seeing from this decided oil company. I want XOM to look forward a little more and become an energy company. One cannot argue with their results, the dividend and the fact that they are relatively cheap now due to the oil prices lagging across the globe due to the current recession.
  25. Yahoo – (YHOO) – the company may symbolize America. We do not always get it right, we try hard. We are willing to make deals. We want to give access and choice and deep down we think that we are making the right and good decision. Here is a company that is trying to transform itself into a media portal. Why do I think this company has upside? The baby boomers. Yahoo makes the internet easy. It is a good portal for games, news, email and search. iGoogle is 1 step to complicated and Bing might not have enough on their splash page besides a nice picture. Yahoo is the happy medium and has room for regrowth.
  26. Zoll - (ZOLL) – Medical device maker and soft way maker!

Now set off the fireworks! Again Happy Fourth! If I goofed up on a company actually being an American Company mea culpa. My disclaimer is that I was going quick before the holiday weekend as I too can’t wait for some good ole fashioned Americana.Complete Story »

Discover Beats on Direct Banking, Services Gains

Zacks.com submits:
On June 24, Discover Financial Services (DFS) reported a fiscal second quarter profit of $258 million or 33 cents per share. The earnings were well ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate at 11 cents. The surge in profits was due to a significant rise in the use of credit cards with reduced defaults, as well as gains from the payments business driven by strong volumes.The company reported a loss of $132 million or 31 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. However, results in the year-ago quarter excluded an after-tax gain of approximately $295 million related to the settlement of an antitrust litigation with Visa, Inc. (V) and Mastercard Incorporated (MA).Complete Story »

A Drubbing in May: Hedge Fund Performance Numbers

Market Folly submits:As you've undoubtedly already heard, May was a brutal month for the markets. But at the same time, it was also brutal to many hedge funds who couldn't seem to effectively 'hedge' against the 8% decline in the indices. Compare these numbers to say those of the first quarter hedge fund performances and you'll see night and day. Below are some recently updated performance numbers from some of the most prominent hedge funds out there and some of the results will surprise you: Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global: -3.2% for May and now -2.62% for the year. As we've previously detailed, Visa (V) and Express Scripts (ESRX) are some of Viking's largest holdings. Visa could be partially responsible for their poor numbers as the stock was down over 20% in May, while ESRX on the other hand performed well on a relative basis as it was only down around 3% over the same timeframe. You can view Viking Global's portfolio here.Complete Story »

Julian Robertson's Tiger Management Bets on Intel, Wal-Mart and Monsanto

Market Folly submits:(This post is part of our series on tracking hedge fund portfolios. If you're unfamiliar with tracking investments they disclose via SEC filings, check out our series preface on hedge fund filings.) Next up is investment guru and legend Julian Robertso,n who founded one of the lauded hedge funds of the era, Tiger Management. He grew the fund from $8 million at inception to over $22 billion at its peak. Between 1980 and 2000, Tiger compounded a gross rate of 31.5%, but after losses of 4% in 1998 and 19% in 1999, Tiger shut down. For more information on Julian, check out Daniel Strackman's book entitled, Julian Robertson: A Tiger in the Land Of Bulls And Bears.Complete Story »

Consumer Credit: Not So Rosy

Karl Denninger submits: There's nothing here that I like: Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 1/2 percent in April 2010. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 12 percent, and nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7 percent.Complete Story »

Shumway Capital Partners Adds Large New Stakes in Kraft Foods and Comcast

Market Folly submits:(This post is part of our series on tracking hedge fund portfolios. If you're unfamiliar with tracking investments they disclose via SEC filings, check out our series preface on hedge fund filings.)Next up is Chris Shumway's hedge fund Shumway Capital Partners. Prior to founding his firm, Shumway was previously one of Julian Robertson's right-hand men at legendary hedge fund Tiger Management. As such, he joins the other successful Tiger Cubs and is included in the Tiger Cub portfolio created with Alphaclone for hedge fund replication. Shumway Capital Partners focuses on intensive fundamental research to drive their long/short equity strategy. Back in 2009, Shumway was listed in Barron's top 100 hedge funds for 2009 with a rolling 3-year annualized return of 28%. However, 2010 has proven difficult for the firm as its Sakkonet Fund was down 10% in May after it had gained 4.3% through April. Shumway received his MBA from Harvard Business School and his undergraduate degree from the University of Virginia.Complete Story »

Why Investors Should Make Friends With Fear

Marco Anthony submits:In this post I will give some advice on why I believe investors should become friends with fear, and explain how it can be done using stock options. I'm certain many of you already know how the markets gauge fear, but for those of you who don't, a simple way to see how fearful the markets are is an indicator called the Volatility Index ((VIX)). The entry symbol to track the VIX is different in almost every brokerage I use, so a sure and easy way to track it is with the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term ETN (VXX). Historically, anything above 30 on the Volatility Index is high and signals increased levels of fear in the markets, but for those tracking market volatility using the VXX it looks to be the 24-25 level. So why should investors make friends with fear? First it is very important to note that fear is friendly only to an investor who is well educated in stock options. Why? A major factor in pricing an option premium (or contract price) is volatility. Keeping all other things constant, higher volatility = higher premium. This means investors can sell premiums to cost average down a position, or what I like doing in times of market correction, selling "naked puts" to get into shares I don't mind owning.Complete Story »

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

  • Installing the circuit breakers. In a bid to prevent occurrences like the May 6 "Flash Crash," U.S. regulators and stock exchanges plan a six-month pilot program for marketwide, stock-specific circuit breakers. The SEC proposes a rule for a five-minute cross-market "time-out" for any stock that moves 10% in the prior five minutes. Also, the SEC and CFTC issued a joint report on the plunge that explores six hypotheses - including stop-loss orders, liquidity mismatches and "stub quotes" for just pennies on some issues - to explain what went wrong.
  • Primaries go against key Senators. In a seemingly significant demonstration of anti-Washington sentiment, newcomers ran strong races against incumbents of both parties in Tuesday's primaries. Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee who introduced broad derivatives legislation last month, was forced into a June runoff; Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) lost outright despite endorsement by President Obama. On the Republican side, in Kentucky the candidate backed by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell lost to Rand Paul, a tea-party favorite.
  • Naked shorts out in Germany. Financial-markets regulators in Germany at midnight began banning naked short sales (done without actually borrowing the underlying security) and naked credit-default swaps on certain eurozone debt, as well as on a sampling of 10 financial stocks. The restrictions last until March 31. Responding to voter unrest, politicians are trying to put the heat on speculators blamed for bond volatility, though the moves may be mostly symbolic since most such trading takes place in London, outside German jurisdiction. The euro fell more than 1.5% against the dollar to under $1.22.
  • Bank of America to sell Unibanco stake. In a move expected to raise $4B, Bank of America and Brazilian lender Itau Unibanco announced that BofA will sell 56.5 million shares to Itau SA, Unibanco's controlling shareholder, and do an offering of 188.5 million preferred shares of Unibanco the week of May 31, after which Bank of America will no longer hold any position in the Brazilian bank.
  • Board challenges fizzle. The first challenge to the leadership of Massey Energy - still reeling from its April 5 mine accident - fell short, as three directors won re-election over protest candidates. JPMorgan Chase shareholders quashed a challenge that would have split the roles of CEO and chairman, which will remain with Jamie Dimon. And Morgan Stanley's holders kill a plan that would require an independent chairman.
  • Geithner to press China. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner travels to Beijing next week with an agenda of urging officials to relax rules that discriminate against foreign companies, including U.S. firms. Continued concerns over Europe's sovereign debt may have back-burnered the original No. 1 topic: persuading China to let the yuan appreciate.
  • Card issuers tumble. As credit-card executives warned of lost business due to curbed debit-card fees and a possible upcoming "volcanic" surge of regulations, shares of issuers sold off heavily Tuesday. Visa (V) closed down 6.2%; MasterCard (MA) -3.8%; American Express (AXP) -3.4%; Discover (DFS) -5.3%; Capital One (COF) -2.4%.
  • Dodd shelves controversial swaps rule. As amendments to financial regulatory reform keep falling into place, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd offers to postpone one of the most contentious proposals, which would force big banks to move swaps trading to subsidiaries. The compromise puts the measure up for a year of study by a council of regulators.
  • H-P beats expectations, raises outlook. Hewlett-Packard beat expectations with its second-quarter earnings per share of $1.09, on revenue more than 12% higher than the year-ago period. H-P raised its full-year profit expectation to $4.45-$4.50 a share on demand for PCs and servers as well as a resurgent printing business, as companies are widely expected to replace old equipment as a recovery continues.
  • Symantec near deal for VeriSign unit. Symantec, the highest-revenue tech security company, is reportedly close to a deal to buy VeriSign's authentication business for $1.3B, another step in Symantec's growth beyond antivirus software - and what may be the last in a series of divestitures for former dot-com star VeriSign.
  • Sovereign, M&T break talks. Advanced merger discussions between Sovereign Bank and M&T Bank are now dead, sources say. The deal would have made Spain's Banco Santander - Sovereign's owner - a top-tier bank in the U.S. Santander is an outlier among European banks too weak to make acquisitions, and it's eager to push into the American market.
  • Yahoo escalates the content wars. Yahoo announced yesterday that it will acquire content producer Associated Content in a deal slated to close in Q3 2010. Financial terms were not disclosed, but BoomTown’s Kara Swisher pegged the price at $90 million. The high-volume content producer will, essentially, help fill more online real estate around which Yahoo can place ads.
  • Tensions close Bangkok market. The Stock Exchange of Thailand, which closed an hour early on Monday and Tuesday, did not reopen for the afternoon session Wednesday in the face of continuing conflicts between government troops and protesters in the capital.
  • Another Toyota recall. A computerized steering problem in its Lexus LS line of sedans is causing the embattled automaker to recall 4,500 of the cars in Japan and another 7,000 sold globally. About 3.800 of those cars were sold in the U.S. Despite recent attempts by Toyota to appear more responsive, a company spokesperson said that the time frame for this latest recall had not yet been established.
  • Deepwater Horizon fallout continues. Amidst reports of the first landings of oil on Florida beaches and fears that the oil slick has entered the loop current, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar admitted failures to a Senate panel Tuesday. Testifying before the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Salazar said "We need to clean up that house" with reference to his agency's Minerals Management Service and acknowledged there were "a few bad apples." Responsibility for the massive BP oil spill rests, he said, with both industry and government.

Earnings: Tuesday After Close

Earnings: Wednesday Before Open

  • Deere (DE): FQ2 EPS of $1.58 beats by $0.49. Revenue of $6.5B (+6%) vs. $6.6B. (PR)
  • BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ): Q1 EPS of $0.49 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $2.5B (+12.8%) vs. $2.6B. (PR)

Today's Markets

  • In Asia,Japan -0.5%. Hong Kong -1.8%. China -0.3%. India -2.8%.
  • In Europe, at midday, London -2.3%. Paris -2.9%. Frankfurt -2.7%.
  • Futures: S&P -0.89%. 10-yr +0.22%. Euro -0.15% vs. dollar. Crude -1.44% to $71.65. Gold -0.61% to $1207.20.

Wednesday's Economic Calendar

Seeking Alpha editor Jason Aycock contributed to this post.Complete Story »

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